what was the most passing yards in an nfl game

The quarterback variable is 2.76 times as large as the defense variable.

The key number in that equation isn’t even in the equation: the key number is the ratio between the two coefficients. My output was the actual number of passing yards produced in that game.īelow is the best-fit equation, after I forced the constant to be zero, since we don’t care what the constant is in this regression, we just want to understand the ratio between the two variables.:Ġ.704 * Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards + 0.255 * Era-Adjusted Expected Pass Yards allowed by the Defense I also calculated the “Expected Passing Yards Allowed” by his opponent in each game, based upon the opponent’s average yards allowed total in their other 14 games.ģ) I then subtracted the league average from the Expected Passing Yards and Expected Passing Yards Allowed, to come up with era-adjusted numbers.Ĥ) I performed a regression analysis using Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards and Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards Allowed as my inputs. This number, which is different for each quarterback in each game, is the “Expected Passing Yards” for each quarterback in each game. I also calculated, for his opponent, that team’s average passing yards allowed per game in their first 15 games of the season.Ģ) I then calculated the number of passing yards averaged by each quarterback in his games that season excluding the game in question. Then, I looked at the number of passing yards averaged by each quarterback during that season, excluding the final game of every year. Here’s the fine print:ġ) I limited my study to all quarterbacks since 1978 who started at least 14 games for one team. When Team A plays Team B, how many passing yards should we expect? As we all know, Team A can look very different when it has Dan Orlovsky instead of Peyton Manning, so I instead chose to look at Quarterback A against Team B. I was wondering the same thing about passing yards. In other words, offense and defense both matter, but offense tends to matter more. In May, I wrote that the scoring team is responsible for roughly 60% of the points it scores, while the opponent is responsible for 40% of those points. Spoiler: the quarterback plays a big role in passing yards.

What was the most passing yards in an nfl game